Introduction: Sustained high alcohol intake is necessary but not sufficient to produce alcohol-related cirrhosis. Identification of risk factors, apart from lifetime alcohol exposure, would assist in discovery of mechanisms and prediction of risk.

Methods: We conducted a multicenter case-control study (GenomALC) comparing 1,293 cases (with alcohol-related cirrhosis, 75.6% male) and 754 controls (with equivalent alcohol exposure but no evidence of liver disease, 73.6% male). Information confirming or excluding cirrhosis, and on alcohol intake and other potential risk factors, was obtained from clinical records and by interview. Case-control differences in risk factors discovered in the GenomALC participants were validated using similar data from 407 cases and 6,573 controls from UK Biobank.

Results: The GenomALC case and control groups reported similar lifetime alcohol intake (1,374 vs 1,412 kg). Cases had a higher prevalence of diabetes (20.5% (262/1,288) vs 6.5% (48/734), P = 2.27 × 10-18) and higher premorbid body mass index (26.37 ± 0.16 kg/m2) than controls (24.44 ± 0.18 kg/m2, P = 5.77 × 10-15). Controls were significantly more likely to have been wine drinkers, coffee drinkers, smokers, and cannabis users than cases. Cases reported a higher proportion of parents who died of liver disease than controls (odds ratio 2.25 95% confidence interval 1.55-3.26). Data from UK Biobank confirmed these findings for diabetes, body mass index, proportion of alcohol as wine, and coffee consumption.

Discussion: If these relationships are causal, measures such as weight loss, intensive treatment of diabetes or prediabetic states, and coffee consumption should reduce the risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis.

Background and aims: Only a minority of heavy drinkers progress to alcohol-associated cirrhosis (ALC). The aim of this study was to identify common genetic variants that underlie risk for ALC.

Approach and results: We analyzed data from 1,128 subjects of European ancestry with ALC and 614 heavy-drinking subjects without known liver disease from Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and three countries in Europe. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed, adjusting for principal components and clinical covariates (alcohol use, age, sex, body mass index, and diabetes). We validated our GWAS findings using UK Biobank. We then performed a meta-analysis combining data from our study, the UK Biobank, and a previously published GWAS. Our GWAS found genome-wide significant risk association of rs738409 in patatin-like phospholipase domain containing 3 (PNPLA3) (odds ratio [OR] = 2.19 [G allele], P = 4.93 × 10-17 ) and rs4607179 near HSD17B13 (OR = 0.57 [C allele], P = 1.09 × 10-10 ) with ALC. Conditional analysis accounting for the PNPLA3 and HSD17B13 loci identified a protective association at rs374702773 in Fas-associated factor family member 2 (FAF2) (OR = 0.61 [del(T) allele], P = 2.56 × 10-8 ) for ALC. This association was replicated in the UK Biobank using conditional analysis (OR = 0.79, P = 0.001). Meta-analysis (without conditioning) confirmed genome-wide significance for the identified FAF2 locus as well as PNPLA3 and HSD17B13. Two other previously known loci (SERPINA1 and SUGP1/TM6SF2) were also genome-wide significant in the meta-analysis. GeneOntology pathway analysis identified lipid droplets as the target for several identified genes. In conclusion, our GWAS identified a locus at FAF2 associated with reduced risk of ALC among heavy drinkers. Like the PNPLA3 and HSD17B13 gene products, the FAF2 product has been localized to fat droplets in hepatocytes.

Conclusions: Our genetic findings implicate lipid droplets in the biological pathway(s) underlying ALC.

Background & aims: Only a minority of excess alcohol drinkers develop cirrhosis. We developed and evaluated risk stratification scores to identify those at highest risk.

Methods: Three cohorts (GenomALC-1: n = 1,690, GenomALC-2: n = 3,037, UK Biobank: relevant n = 6,898) with a history of heavy alcohol consumption (≥80 g/day (men), ≥50 g/day (women), for ≥10 years) were included. Cases were participants with alcohol-related cirrhosis. Controls had a history of similar alcohol consumption but no evidence of liver disease. Risk scores were computed from up to 8 genetic loci identified previously as associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis and 3 clinical risk factors. Score performance for the stratification of alcohol-related cirrhosis risk was assessed and compared across the alcohol-related liver disease spectrum, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Results: A combination of 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (PNPLA3:rs738409, SUGP1-TM6SF2:rs10401969, HSD17B13:rs6834314) and diabetes status best discriminated cirrhosis risk. The odds ratios (ORs) and (95% CIs) between the lowest (Q1) and highest (Q5) score quintiles of the 3-SNP score, based on independent allelic effect size estimates, were 5.99 (4.18-8.60) (GenomALC-1), 2.81 (2.03-3.89) (GenomALC-2), and 3.10 (2.32-4.14) (UK Biobank). Patients with diabetes and high risk scores had ORs of 14.7 (7.69-28.1) (GenomALC-1) and 17.1 (11.3-25.7) (UK Biobank) compared to those without diabetes and with low risk scores. Patients with cirrhosis and HCC had significantly higher mean risk scores than patients with cirrhosis alone (0.76 ± 0.06 vs. 0.61 ± 0.02, p = 0.007). Score performance was not significantly enhanced by information on additional genetic risk variants, body mass index or coffee consumption.

Conclusions: A risk score based on 3 genetic risk variants and diabetes status enables the stratification of heavy drinkers based on their risk of cirrhosis, allowing for the provision of earlier preventative interventions.

Background and Aims

The aMAP score was recently devised to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. However, its performance was not tested in alcohol-related cirrhosis (ALC). We aimed to validate the aMAP score in a cohort of ALC patients.

Method

Study participants with ALC from a prior genome-wide association study were included. All participants had a history of high alcohol consumption. Cirrhosis was defined clinically, using fibroscan and/or histology. Patients were followed until the last liver imaging, HCC, liver transplantation (LT) or death with the latter two adjusted as competing risks.

Results

A total of 269 ALC patients were included: male (72.5%), Caucasian (98.9%), median age 56 years, and median Child-Pugh score 7. The median aMAP score was 60: 12.3% low-risk, 35.3% medium-risk and 52.4% high-risk. After a median follow-up of 41 months, 14 patients developed HCC, 27 received LT and 104 died. The aMAP score predicted HCC development (hazard ratio 1.12 per point increase, P < .001) with good separation of cumulative incidence function between risk groups. The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve for predicting HCC development was 0.83 at 1 year and 0.82 at 5 years which was similar to ADRESS-HCC and Veterans Affairs Healthcare System scores respectively.

Conclusions

We validated the excellent performance of the aMAP score in ALC and affirm its applicability across wider aetiologies.

Background: High alcohol intake is associated with increased mortality. We aimed to identify factors affecting mortality in people drinking extreme amounts of alcohol.

Methods: We obtained information from the UK Biobank on approximately 500,000 participants aged 40-70 years at baseline assessment in 2006-2010. Habitual alcohol intake, lifestyle and physiological data, laboratory test results, and hospital diagnoses and death certificate data (to June 2020) for 5136 men (2.20% of male participants) and 1504 women (0.60%) who reported consuming ≥80 or ≥50 g/day, respectively, were used in survival analysis.

Results: Mortality hazard ratios for these excessive drinkers, compared to all other participants, were 2.02 (95% CI 1.89-2.17) for all causes, 1.89 (1.69-2.12) for any cancer, 1.87 (1.61-2.17) for any circulatory disease, and 9.40 (7.00-12.64) for any liver disease. Liver disease diagnosis or abnormal liver function tests predicted not only deaths attributed to liver disease but also those from cancers or circulatory diseases. Mortality among excessive drinkers was also associated with quantitative alcohol intake; diagnosed alcohol dependence, harmful use, or withdrawal syndrome; and current smoking at assessment.

Conclusions: People with chronic excessive alcohol intake experience decreased average survival, but there is substantial variation in their mortality, with liver abnormality and alcohol dependence or other alcohol use disorders associated with a worse prognosis. Clinically, patients with these risk factors and high alcohol intake should be considered for early or intensive management. Research can usefully focus on the factors predisposing to dependence or liver abnormality.